The SILAQ Initiative focuses on the improvement of local air quality, with two areas of emphasis: (1) promotion of unleaded gasoline and (2) reduction of sulfur and particulate emissions.
This Report, prepared by the Regional Environmental Center for Central and Eastern Europe (REC), in cooperation with the Bulgarian Ministry of Environment and Waters, provides an up-to-date overview of the progress achieved in phasing out lead from gasoline in the SILAQ countries.
Exposure is primarily caused by airborne lead. In congested urban areas, exhaust fumes from vehicles using leaded gasoline typically account for some 90 percent of airborne lead pollution. Lead emissions in the SILAQ countries have been declining since 1990, both in terms of total and vehicle-related emissions. Vehicles account for a major percentage of lead emissions, although there are significant country variations. Slovakia has the lowest total lead and vehicle-based emissions, along with the lowest per capita levels, owing to the rapid phase-out of leaded gasoline completed in 1995. Slovenia has the highest per capita emissions. It is unclear, however, as to whether this trend in the SILAQ countries is due to the increasing use of unleaded gasoline, or because of the decline in emissions from stationary sources.
The health benefits from reducing human exposure to lead can be grouped into three categories: (i) a positive impact on neurological development and intelligence; (ii) avoidance of costs in the special education of children with learning disabilities resulting from lead pollution; (iii) reduction in the number of lives lost prematurely due to cardiovascular problems caused by lead. Significant health benefits may be anticipated particularly in congested urban areas with high population densities. When comparing estimates, the benefits of lead removal may exceed the costs by 3-6 times. Based on US experiences, even higher cost/benefit ratios may be obtained when considering the reduced vehicle maintenance costs.
In all the SILAQ countries, the EU lead limit of 0.15 g/l in leaded gasoline and 0.013 g/l for unleaded has either already been adopted, or will be applied in the near future (and no later than the year 2000). With the exception of Romania, where the maximum lead content stands currently at 0.32 g/l, the actual average lead content in leaded gasoline sold in the SILAQ countries is approximately 0.13 g/l. Some countries have also introduced regulations for other components.
The mandatory use of catalytic converters on new cars is an effective instrument for controlling vehicle-related air pollution. Catalytic converters in Slovakia have been required for both imported and domestically produced cars since 1993. Similar requirements have been introduced in Slovenia (1994), in Poland (1995) and in Hungary (1996), and are forthcoming in Bulgaria (1998), and in Romania (1998 for imported cars, and 2000 for those produced domestically).
Most SILAQ countries require the periodic technical testing of vehicles, which should also include the measurement of exhaust emission levels. Some SILAQ countries have introduced roadside spot-checks for vehicle emission levels using portable equipment.
Hungary and Slovakia are well-positioned to produce sufficient quantities of unleaded gasoline to meet domestic demand. Bulgaria, through domestic production, is able to cover about 45 percent of the market need for unleaded gasoline, while Romania could produce enough unleaded gasoline to satisfy domestic demand completely. In Poland, one third of its unleaded gasoline is imported, while Slovenia imports 90 percent of that used. Poland is planning also to increase production, but it is unlikely to meet the demand based on domestic production alone. Interestingly, the production of unleaded gasoline has been increasing in most countries at a rate much faster than its domestic consumption.
On average, passenger cars are considerably older (approximately 11.2 years) in the SILAQ countries, compared with their West European counterparts (6-8 years). Bulgaria, the Czech Republic and Slovakia have the oldest passenger car fleets. Domestically manufactured cars or those from the other former Eastern bloc countries are the prevailing makes of cars. The share of cars made in Western Europe and Far East countries is still low, at fewer than 30 percent. The share of passenger cars equipped with catalytic converters is even lower in all the SILAQ countries, and does not exceed 15 percent.
A large percentage (40 to 60 percent) of car fleets in the SILAQ countries are made up of older cars equipped with engines containing soft exhaust valve seats, which are believed to require leaded gasoline for its lubricant properties. The structure of the vehicle fleet is often cited as a major obstacle to lead phase-out. However, research shows that the amount of lead required for lubrication is much lower than the currently applied standards of 0.15 g/l, and that 0.05 g/l is sufficient to provide the required effect. Secondly, lubrication can be provided by commercially available potassium and sodium-based lubricant additives. There is also evidence that suggests many cars previously thought to need leaded gasoline can operate using unleaded gasoline. The cost of replacing lead as a lubricating additive has been estimated at approximately USD 0.003 per liter of gasoline.
Slovakia and Slovenia have one refinery each. Bulgaria and Hungary have two, while the Czech Republic has four refineries. Poland and Romania operate a larger number of refineries: seven and five, respectively. The prevailing type of refinery is Type 2, followed by Type 3. Crude distillation and conversion processes are the norm, with the upgrading and the use of organic and lubricating additives practiced in some refineries.
The SILAQ countries generally do not use their refineries to full capacity. Poland and Slovakia present the highest usage, at 89 percent and 80 percent, respectively. Romania and Bulgaria utilize their refineries to 69 percent and 65 percent, respectively. Only 55 percent of the refinery capacity is utilized in Slovenia. Ownership of the refineries is mixed: they are fully privatized in Hungary, while in Poland, all refineries are owned by the state. In Slovakia, the sole refinery is in private hands. In Romania and Slovenia, ownership is shared by the state with private interests. In Bulgaria, two out of the three refineries are privately owned.
A significant obstacle to the phase-out of lead is the need for investment in modernizing existing gasoline production units. Worldwide experience and estimates indicate that annual investment expenditures and added operating costs associated with the removal of lead from gasoline are typically in the range of USD 0.01-0.02 per liter of gasoline. Preliminary estimates as to the cost of removing lead from gasoline in Romania did not exceed the range of USD 0.005-0.02 per liter, including both operation and capital recovery costs.
The core aspects that need to be addressed include: regulations and enforcement; incentives; a broad consensus among the affected stakeholders; and public understanding and acceptance. Three general approaches may be considered, including:
The key measures adopted by those countries which have already phased out leaded gasoline, tended to include the maximum permissible lead content in gasoline of 0.15 g/l, the use of tax incentives to promote market demand for unleaded gasoline, and the introduction of stricter air emission standards for new cars, which could only be met through the use of catalytic converters.
Considering the current conditions in most SILAQ countries, the technology-based approach alone would require a lengthy transition period because of the large numbers of old cars within the vehicle fleet. It appears that combining the incentive and rapid phase-out approaches, a more suitable way of dealing with vehicle-related lead exposure problems in the SILAQ countries can be found. Bulgaria, Hungary, Poland and Slovenia have followed the incentive approach, combined with regulations to reduce the lead content of gasoline, and support the use and import of cars with catalytic converters. Tax incentives have been applied in all the SILAQ countries, but with the exception of Slovakia and Slovenia, the difference in the consumer price of gasoline is relatively small.
The phase-out strategy should also include a realistic schedule with clearly defined and well-communicated objectives and time-lines. The timely introduction and enforcement of corresponding regulations would accelerate the lead phase-out process. Such an approach would provide a sufficient adjustment period for the refineries and reduce the adjustment costs.
The lack of finance constitutes a significant barrier in the SILAQ countries, particularly in Bulgaria and Romania, and to some extent in Poland. Modernization of existing refineries in order to produce unleaded gasoline is technically feasible, especially since most refineries are of the more advanced type, but the process requires significant investments. If a proper combination of tax incentives and stricter regulations can be introduced, refineries will have to look more actively for the necessary funding.
The problems related to the high share of vehicles with soft exhaust valve seat engines, believed to require lubrication provided by lead, can be solved by the application of commercially available alternative non-lead lubricants. For instance, Slovakia completely phased out lead in 1995 despite the fact that more than half of the car fleet carried engines with soft exhaust valve seats. Slovakia's experience shows there are available technological options, policy measures and alternatives in the phase-out of leaded gasoline that may be applicable to the other SILAQ countries where high vehicle age is a problem.
Awareness raising measures will have to be widely used to overcome the lack of information among the public as to a vehicle's ability to use unleaded gasoline. This is particularly important for that segment of the vehicle fleet which can use both leaded and unleaded gasoline. Mass media information campaigns and brochures available at gasoline stations and vehicle technical control centers are possible means to increase awareness of the rationale and benefits from the phase-out of lead in gasoline.
To implement some of these actions, external assistance must be sought.
Under the aegis of the SILAQ Working Group, and with the coordination provided by the Regional Environmental Center, small joint-expert teams could be established to facilitate the exchange of experiences and to help accelerate the lead phase-out process. Exchanges of experience could focus on successful programs and case studies, and would address the major constraints to the implementation of lead phase-out activities. The SILAQ countries might also initiate country studies on how best to address technical problems resulting from the characteristics of vehicle fleets. Work could also focus on the implementation of effective emission control systems and the periodic technical inspection of vehicles.
Such joint activities would help facilitate Task Force initiatives realize the pan-European strategy for the phase-out of leaded gasoline. The follow-up to the Sofia Initiative for Local Air Quality, organized as a multi-country regional cooperation project open to new participants would not only accelerate the phase-out of lead, but also contribute to the European integration process.