| Cost Factors | The costs of lead phase-out at the refinery level are determined by the relationship between the general technical and economic characteristics of the petroleum refining process, and refinery-specific conditions, such as the processing capabilities, refinery configurations, the existence of excess capacity, crude oil availability, and product range. Thus, a strategy to phase-out lead affects the relative competitiveness of refineries, which may well become an important socio-economic issue as well. World-wide experience and estimates indicate that annual investment expenditures and added operating costs associated with the removal of lead from gasoline are typically in the range of USD 0.01-0.02 per liter of gasoline. Preliminary estimates of the cost of removing lead from gasoline in Romania did not exceed the range of USD 0.005-0.02 per liter, including both operation and capital recovery costs.
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| Country Studies | A World Bank feasibility study on the phase-out of lead in Bulgaria concluded that the optimization of operations is needed, and that a USD 1.4 million investment to modernize Neftochim refinery's fluid catalytic cracking (FCC) unit could enable the refinery to increase the share of unleaded gasoline manufactured from the current 25 percent to between 35 percent and 38 percent of total production. It should also be noted that the total necessary investments for the modernization of the refineries' units are significant, amounting to some USD 70 million for Neftochim, and USD 30 million for Plama.
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| Social Benefits | The social benefits from reducing human exposure to lead can be grouped into three categories: (i) a positive impact on neurological development and intelligence; (ii) avoidance of costs in the special education of children with learning disabilities resulting from lead pollution; (iii) reduction in the number of lives lost prematurely due to cardiovascular problems caused by lead. Research and statistical relationships between IQ gradients and wages indicate the direct relationship between intellectual performance and earnings. In the Russian Federation, for example, the annual benefits from a 1 mg/dl BLL decrease in the exposed population were estimated at USD 15 per person.
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| Cost/Benefit Ratio | In comparing this estimate with the previously mentioned mid-points of cost range calculations, the benefits of lead removal may exceed the costs by 3 to 6 times. Cost/benefit ratios depend mainly on the refinery's adjustment to the changes in market conditions. The experience of the US confirms that even higher cost/benefit ratios may be obtained by considering the advantages of reduced vehicle maintenance costs.
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