REC: Phase-out of Leaded Gasoline: Technical and Economic Considerations (4.1)

4. Technical and Economic Considerations for the Phase-out of Leaded Gasoline

	The phase-out of leaded gasoline is technically and economically feasible. Most refineries in the SILAQ countries could easily, at least from a technical point of view, switch to producing unleaded gasoline. It is obvious that a significant problem in the phase-out of lead from gasoline in the SILAQ countries is the need for investment in modernizing existing gasoline production units. Another issue to consider is the high share of vehicles with soft exhaust valve seats, which may require lead in gasoline for lubrication. However, this can also be achieved by adding alternative lubricants which do not contain lead. All other problems encountered tend to be related to public support and policies adopted by governments. This section reviews in more detail considerations for the refinery sector and the vehicle fleet.
4.1 Technological options for the petroleum refinery sector
Substituting Lead	Depending on refinery type, there are different technological options and alternatives to producing lead-free gasoline. The phase-out of lead from gasoline requires the replacement of tetra(m)ethyl lead component which is used to increase the octane number and to provide lubrication. The octane number can be compensated by: Increasing the proportion of high-octane blendstocks in the gasoline pool; Increasing the octane levels of at least some blendstocks. The technical options available for the replacement of the lead-related octane include: Increasing the octane number of the reformate by increasing reformer severity (within the limits of sustainable operations). The achievement of the necessary increase in reformer severity may require reconfiguration and modernization of the reformer unit; Increasing the production of high octane blendstocks (reformate, FCC gasoline, alkylate, isomerate or oxygenate) in the refinery by increasing utilization and, if necessary, expanding or modernizing existing process units. Note that alkylate and oxygenate can be produced only in conversion refineries, and increasing their production in existing units calls for increasing the output of the refinery's FCC unit; Blending additives such as MTBE into the gasoline pool; Reducing the volume of light naphtha in the gasoline pool, by Increasing the volume of light naphtha upgraded to isomerate; Increasing the volume of light naphtha sold to the petrochemical sector.
Constraints to Accelerating Lead Phase-out	Bulgarian, Romanian and Polish authorities note that a major constraint to accelerating the phase-out of lead in gasoline is the poor octane pool of the refineries and the need for significant investments in modernizing existing production units. Moreover, in most SILAQ countries, there are some refineries which are in a poor state of repair as a result of the economic recession. The need for investment related to the phase-out of lead from gasoline has been estimated at between one and five USD per 100 liters of gasoline produced (this includes investment costs and increased operation costs). While this is not prohibitive, it may appear high, particularly for older and simpler refineries which will require more fundamental modernization to produce unleaded gasoline at a profit. However, as a result of such modernization, operational costs may be substantially lower due to efficiency gains.
Further Studies	To ascertain the most effective and economical approach, feasibility studies should be conducted for each refinery. Many feasibility studies, supported by the World Bank and other parties, have already been performed in all SILAQ countries. However, their implementation requires considerable investment in most cases, and the availability of financing is of crucial importance for the lead phase-out process. Accelerating the privatization process, combined with the strong support of external partners can help advance the implementation of such projects.

REC * PUBLICATIONS * PHASE-OUT OF LEADED GASOLINE * TECHNICAL AND ECONOMIC CONSIDERATIONS