3. Current Conditions Influencing the Phase-out of Lead in the SILAQ Countries (continued)

3.4 Use of gasoline

Gasoline Consumption

The consumption of unleaded gasoline in Bulgaria has increased in recent years, but is still only 7 percent of the total amount consumed. The majority of domestically produced unleaded gasoline is exported. In Romania, the export of unleaded gasoline declined in 1996, somewhat raising levels of domestic consumption. The consumption of unleaded gasoline in Poland, Hungary, Slovakia and Slovenia has shown a gradual increase during the 1990's. However, only Slovakia has seen a radical decline in the consumption of leaded gasoline. An examination of gasoline consumption data shows the need for considerable efforts and more efficient policy measures to be taken in order to ensure the attractiveness and increased use of unleaded gasoline. This is especially important considering that the production of unleaded gasoline (both in actual numbers and as a percentage of the overall domestic production) has been increasing in most countries at a much faster rate than its domestic consumption. 3.4.2 Gasoline Types and their Respective Share of the Market The consumption of unleaded gasoline varies substantially in the surveyed countries, ranging from only 5-7 percent for Bulgaria and Romania, to 100 percent for Slovakia, as shown in Table 19.

TABLE 19: Consumption of Unleaded Gasoline (as a percentege of the total gasoline consumption)
Country	1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996
Bulgaria	<1	1	1	2	5	7	5
Czech Republic	-	-	-	-	35	-	55
Hungary	-	-	-	-	-	50	64
Poland	-	<1	9	18	25	34	37
Romania	-	-	-	-	-	13	5
Slovakia	3	4	6	43	81	100	100
Slovenia	3	9	20	29	36	45	54
EU average*	-	-	-	56	62	65	n.a.
* It is expected that by the year 2000, unleaded gasoline will make up 98 percent of the total consumption in the EU.

Market Share of Unleaded Gasoline	Thus, Slovakia has completely phased out leaded gasoline. Relatively high shares of unleaded gasoline (above 50 percent), are reported for the Czech Republic, Hungary and Slovenia. In Bulgaria and Romania, the share of unleaded gasoline in terms of overall consumption is quite low, although it is interesting to note that in both countries, the share of unleaded gasoline in domestic production is significantly higher, as shown in Table 18.
Country Case Studies	Detailed data on the market shares of different gasoline types are provided for Hungary and Slovakia in Table 20. The two countries have the largest market shares of unleaded gasoline. An analysis of the data and the pricing policies of other SILAQ countries shows some of the barriers to the process of phasing out lead. TABLE 20: Market Shares of Different Gasoline Types Country Leaded Unleaded Type Share (%) Type Share (%) Hungary AB 92 9.4 EN 91 18.8 (1996) AB 98 26.8 ESZ 95 42.5       ESZ 98 2.5 Slovakia*     Unigasoline 91 55 (1995)     Unisuper 95 28       Natural 95 10       Super Plus 98 7 * Taken from the Slovak Country Status Report. In July 1993, the "Slovnaft" joint-stock company, the sole refinery in Slovakia, ceased production of the leaded gasoline, SUPER 96. This was replaced by the unleaded gasoline UNISUPER 95. However, UNIGASOLINE 91 is most commonly used since it is the most widely produced and distributed (some 55 percent). In Hungary, the largest market share (some 43 percent) belongs to the unleaded gasoline ESZ 95. Bulgaria and Romania are also planning some changes in the availability of different types of gasoline on the market. The analysis of the data and the pricing policies of other SILAQ countries shows some of the barriers to the process of phasing out lead. The analysis also reveals the approaches that could be taken into consideration for future activities, and highlights the experiences that might be exchanged. Projections for gasoline supply in the SILAQ countries in the near future are not available, but on the basis of the known refinery capacities and the feasibility studies conducted for their reconstruction, some estimates can be made. Bulgaria's National Action Plan shows demand for unleaded gasoline for the period 1997-2001 to increase sharply to 435,000 tons/year in 1999, and to rise by a further 35,000 to 40,000 tons/year until 2010. The actual scenario could be quite different, depending on the policies and measures taken, but the import of unleaded gasoline is not likely. Slovenia has reported (see Table 18) that it imports a considerable amount of high grade gasoline. In 1996, all of the leaded gasoline imported was of the RON 98 standard, while 94 percent of the imported unleaded gasoline was RON 95. In Poland, 93 percent of its imported gasoline was the RON 95 standard. Romania does not import any gasoline because of its high domestic production capacity. 3.4.3 Domestic Capacity for Meeting Demand
Room for Improvement	Bulgaria and Romania can clearly increase consumption of unleaded gasoline by reducing its export. This could happen if the policy were to be adjusted to meet market needs. Bulgaria, through domestic production, is able to cover about 45 percent of the market needs for unleaded gasoline, while Romania could produce enough unleaded gasoline to satisfy domestic demand completely. Hungary notes in its Country Status Report that it is ready to fully meet market demand through domestic production. In Poland, one third of its unleaded gasoline is imported, while Slovenia imports 90 percent of its unleaded gasoline. If a rapid phase-out approach would be taken, Bulgaria, Poland, and Slovenia would have to import substantial quantities of unleaded gasoline to satisfy domestic demand. This approach, however, is only likely to take place in Slovenia. It is necessary to note that cars with soft valve seats are prevented from using unleaded gasoline, without the addition of a suitable substitute lubricant (e.g., based on potassium or sodium). Therefore, an analysis of the vehicle fleet is needed for a true assessment of the domestic demand for unleaded gasoline, and the need for developing the alternative additive. The number and average age of the vehicle fleet determines the possibility for a conversion to and consumption of different types of gasoline. This information is important both to consumers and to decisionmakers.