3. Current Conditions Influencing the Phase-out of Lead in the SILAQ Countries (continued)

3.2 Vehicle Fleet Structure

Types and Numbers	Overall, there are over 21.6 million cars in the seven SILAQ countries. On average, 94 percent of those are passenger cars and light duty vehicles, while 6 percent is made up of trucks, buses and heavy duty vehicles.
Use of Diesel Engines	The percentage of passenger cars and light-duty vehicles equipped with gasoline engines is similar in all the surveyed countries, and ranges from 78 percent in Romania to 94 percent in the Czech Republic. In addition, Bulgaria and Romania use a number of heavy duty vehicles and buses equipped with gasoline engines (2 percent and 5 percent of the total, respectively), which constitute some 40-50 percent of the total number of heavy-duty vehicles and buses. In all the SILAQ countries, the share of diesel-driven passenger cars is small - between 6 percent and 12 percent of the total number of vehicles. This implies that the phase-out of leaded gasoline will impact a large percentage of the respective vehicle fleets. Table 10 provides more details on vehicle fleets of the SILAQ countries. Also, it presents somewhat more up-to-date information regarding the total number of vehicles in comparison with Table 9.

TABLE 10: Number, Age, and Turnover Rate of Vehicles and Share with Catalytic Converters
Country	Number of vehicles (000s)	Number of vehicles per 1,000 Inhabitants	Average age of passenger cars (years)	Average age of heavy vehicles (years)	Annual turnover rate (%)	Share of passenger cars with catalytic converters (%)
Bulgaria1	2,031.2	245	15	15	-	-
Czech Republic2	3,358	320	13.9	10.6	5.7	11.5
Hungary2	2,534.2	246	11.2	9.3	2.7	11.6
Poland1	9,400	244	10	12	4.1	6.4
Romania1	2,772	123	11.5	9.6	8.1/6.9	0.2
Slovakia1	1,510.5	2813	14.8	-	6.9	14.4
Slovenia1	8514	425	6.5	7.3	9.09	-
1. Data for 1996; 2. Data for 1995; 3. Data provided by Anna Violova, Senior Official at the Slovak Ministry of Environment; 4. Total number of vehicles including passenger cars, motor bikes, buses, light trucks, heavy trucks, earth moving vehicles, agricultural vehicles and tractors, and special vehicles.

	Poland and the Czech Republic have the highest total number of vehicles, while Bulgaria, Hungary and Romania follow, with similar values for the total number of vehicles. Although Slovenia has the lowest total number of vehicles, it also has the highest number per 1,000 inhabitants, a figure comparable with countries like Denmark and Finland. The number of cars per capita is also high in the Czech Republic. The per capita figure for Bulgaria, Hungary, Poland and Slovakia is fairly similar, ranging from 244 to 281 cars per 1,000 inhabitants. Romania has about the same overall number of vehicles as Bulgaria and Hungary, but just half the number of vehicles per 1,000 inhabitants.
Vehicle Age	On average, passenger cars are considerably older in the SILAQ countries (approximately 11.2 years) compared with their West European counterparts (6-8 years, COWI). The only exception is Slovenia, with an average car age of 6.5 years. Bulgaria, the Czech Republic and Slovakia have the oldest passenger car fleets. The turnover rate in Slovakia, Romania and Slovenia is close to that reported for Denmark, Switzerland and the UK (COWI). However, the share of passenger cars equipped with catalytic converters is fairly low in all SILAQ countries, and does not exceed 15 percent. In comparison, 24 percent of the vehicles in Finland have catalytic converters.
Vehicle Growth	Table 11 shows the growth of vehicle fleets over the past six years in the SILAQ countries. The data indicates a steady growth in the number of vehicles in the surveyed countries, with growth in Romania and Poland most rapid. It is noteworthy that the turnover rates, as a rule, are slightly higher than the growth rates in the total number of vehicles. This may mean some reduction in the negative environmental impact of vehicles, especially in countries where new cars are produced domestically (e.g., Poland and Romania) and/or where customers are encouraged to buy new cars instead of used Western vehicles.

TABLE 11: Growth in Vehicle Ownership (1990-1996)
Country	Change in number of vehicles. Index=100 for the earliest year of data available
	1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996
Czech Republic	100	103	107	131	123	129	-
Hungary	100	103	107	108	113	116	-
Poland	100	115	122	126	135	140	145
Romania	100	110	121	135	152	165	179
Slovakia	100	103	108	112	111	114	118
Slovenia			100	107	112	119	124

	Table 12 shows that domestically manufactured cars (in the Czech Republic, Poland, Romania, Slovakia and Slovenia), or those from the former Soviet Union and other East European countries (in Bulgaria and Hungary) are the prevailing makes of cars in the surveyed countries. Most of these are based on older technologies and therefore can not meet today's emission standards. That share of the vehicle fleet made in Western Europe and Far East countries is still low, below 30 percent. The highest level, at 29 percent, is reported for Slovakia. TABLE 12: Breakdown of the Vehicle Fleet by Make Country Most popular car makes Share (%) most recent year Bulgaria1 LADA 44.6 MOSKVICH 38 FIAT 7 TRABANT 5.5 WARTBURG 4.9 Czech Republic SKODA 59 VAZ 7.8 FIAT 5.3 FORD 2.7 VOLKSWAGEN 2.1 OPEL 2.0 Hungary1 LADA 20.1 TRABANT 13.9 WARTBURG 8.8 SKODA 8.3 OPEL 6.1 Poland1 FIAT 126P 31.6 FIAT 125 12.3 POLONEZ 9.4 VOLKSWAGEN 4.1 SKODA 3.8 Romania2 DACIA 71 OLTCEIT 5.4 ARO 3.3 VOLKSWAGEN 2.6 Slovakia3 SKODA 100, 105, 120, 130 37.9 SKODA FAVORIT and FELICIA 16.4 LADA, MOSKVICH, VOLGA 12.1 WARTBURG 4.6 VEHICLES FROM WESTERN COUNTRIES 29 Slovenia3 ZASTAVA 26 RENAULT 10.1 IMV (RENAULT) 8.1 UNIS (VOLKSWAGEN) 6.4 OPEL 5.6 1. Data for 1995; 2. Data for 1994; 3. Data for 1996. As seen from Table 12, a large percentage of car fleets in the SILAQ countries consist of older cars equipped with engines carrying soft exhaust valve seats, which are generally believed to require the lubricant effect provided by lead in gasoline. It is estimated that some 40 percent to 60 percent of vehicle fleets in the SILAQ countries consists of cars with soft exhaust valve seats (as opposed to an estimated 20 percent in the EU). Such an issue is often cited as a major obstacle to the phase-out of lead in gasoline.
Use of Lubricants	However, two observations regarding the lubrication requirements of soft-valved engines should be made. First, various research studies show that the amount of lead in gasoline required to provide the required lubrication is much lower than the currently applied standards of 0.15 g/l. It has been shown that the lead content of 0.05 g/l is sufficient to provide the required effect. Secondly, it is important to note that the required lubrication can be provided by additives which are not based on lead. Indeed, potassium and sodium-based lubricant additives are commonly used in a number of countries, and the cost of replacing lead as a lubricating additive has been estimated at approximately USD 0.003 per liter of gasoline. Therefore, the high share of cars equipped with older engines carrying soft exhaust valve seats does need not be an insurmountable obstacle to the effective phase-out of lead. This has been made evident by Slovakia, completely phasing out lead in 1995, despite the fact that more than half of the car fleet was equipped with engines containing soft exhaust valve seats. In fact, it can be concluded that the higher the share of older cars and the lower the turnover rate of vehicle fleet, the more cost-effective it is to develop and introduce non-lead based lubricant additive. BOX 2: Use of Unleaded Gasoline by Vehicles Demand for unleaded gasoline as well as the feasibility of different phase-out strategies directly depends on the number of cars which can use lead-free fuel. In this respect, vehicles can be divided into three groups: Vehicles fitted with catalytic converters. These vehicles only use unleaded gasoline. The use of leaded gasoline can cause permanent damage to catalytic converters; Vehicles with "hardened" exhaust valve seats but without catalytic converters. These vehicles can use either leaded or unleaded gasoline, the main consideration being that the gasoline octane number is suitable for a particular engine; Vehicles with "soft" exhaust valve seats. These vehicles usually have older types of engines, and may not be able to use unleaded gasoline Source: COWI, Working Document for a Strategy for the Phase-out of Lead in Gasoline in Europe, October 1996 3.2.1 Considerations for the Lead Phase-out Policy
Limitations	The large share of old cars with soft valve seats and the small share of new and imported cars equipped with catalytic converters has hindered the rate at which the car fleet can move towards the use of unleaded gasoline. However, economic stabilization in the SILAQ countries and an increase in the share of new cars on the road will see a growth in the number of passenger cars equipped with catalytic converters. During the transition period, the existence of cars with soft valve seats and pricing policies seem to be the most important areas needing to be addressed in increasing the consumption of unleaded gasoline. Much more has still to be done in transferring the experiences of Slovakia in familiarizing drivers with the role of substitute additives in gasoline.
Expected Trends	The volume and structure of the vehicle fleet in the SILAQ countries is expected to be characterized by the following trends in the coming years: A slight increase in the number of new cars and the simultaneous introduction of mandatory catalytic converters. As experiences in Slovakia have shown, lubricating additives can be added to fuel thus making possible the use of unleaded gasoline in old cars with soft valve seats; The gradual elimination of older vehicles; Limitations on the import of cars which cannot use unleaded gasoline, resulting in the gradual phase-out of cars using only leaded gasoline. The success of the pan-European strategy for the phase-out of leaded gasoline could give a new face to the European integration process and can serve as a good example of a new policy that works towards a sustainable environment for Europe.
Public Awareness	The information collected during the workshops and meetings of the SILAQ Working Group in the period between the Sofia and Aarhus Ministerial Conferences should be publicized. In CEE countries, it could help to raise public pressure and understanding to the need for accelerating the process of phasing out leaded gasoline. The lessons learned and the main findings from the last few years should serve as a catalyst for a range of new policy measures which should be taken in the very important coming three years.