BULGARIA: Bulgaria is committed to an 8% reduction of GHG emissions referenced to the base year of 1988 (pre-transition base year chosen by Bulgaria by request entitled in Kyoto Protocol Article 3.5). CO2 emissions represent the bulk of Bulgaria’s GHG emissions, with 90% of the these coming from fossil fuel combustion. Energy policies, including the speed of energy market liberalisation, will play a large role in determining future emission trends.
According to a paper submitted to the IEA Workshop "Opportunities for International Cooperation under the Kyoto Protocol" in Moscow in 1998, current emission projections in Bulgaria indicate that Bulgaria would not attain the proposed Kyoto target in a baseline scenario. Obstacles identified in achieving the target include a reduced share of nuclear energy in total electricity production; high levels of natural gas transit flows, and lack of investment capital (Christov, Todorova, and Vassilev). Feasibility studies are underway evaluating the potential for JI project preparation.
CZECH REPUBLIC: The Czech Republic has recently taken part in the Swiss/World Bank Pilot National Strategies Study Program, which developed future emission projections, estimated future market potential for carbon trading, reviewed domestic GHG policies, and prepared recommendations for improvements toward potentially implementing JI projects. The study highlights recent trends regarding CO2 emissions, GDP growth, and energy efficiency in the Czech economy. Indicators reveal that while GDP growth resumed in 1993, the CO2 intensity of the economy has continued to decline; allowing an effective de-coupling of GDP growth and carbon emissions.
Both high and low growth baseline scenarios developed under the National Strategy Study conclude that Czech emissions will not exceed the commitment targets (92% of 1990 CO2 emissions) by 2008-2012, but that the difference between the Kyoto QELRC and actual emissions will disappear by 2015 if no domestic actions are taken. Among the mitigation options considered were energy pricing reform and energy taxation, energy saving/energy efficiency promotion policies, and the introduction of improved energy generation/distribution technologies. Emission projections including mitigation measures project a total surplus of CO2 emission of 5-24 million tons per year.
ROMANIA: Based on the Romanian Country Survey coordinated by the Romanian Ministry of Waters, Forests and Environmental Protection carbon emissions have decreased since 1989. According to data submitted to the UNFCCC, it is estimated that 1993 levels of GHG emissions were 64% of 1989 levels. Given current and projected energy demand levels, the Romanian survey forecasts that GHG emissions will increase after 2000 and not reach reference year levels through 2010. Romania is committed to an 8% reduction from 1989 emission levels during the 2008-2012 period under the Kyoto Protocol.
Potential for emission reductions through energy efficiency and the introduction of new technologies could be promoted through domestic policies. An optimum reduction scenario has been elaborated which requires investments of USD 28 billion in the energy sector (accounting for 96% CO2 emissions) and USD 608 million in non-energy sectors. Given the current investment environment in Romania and the increasing emission trends, it is unclear whether Romania will be in a position to attract foreign investment through JI projects before domestic emissions reach maximum QUELRC levels.
SLOVAKIA: Slovakia also prepared a National Strategy Study under the Swiss/World Bank Program. The key variables in defining Slovak emission projections in the study were GDP growth and the share of nuclear power in electricity production. Projections concluded that aside from the scenario with low GDP growth (where only low nuclear energy capacities would be available) and the implementation of new proposed emission standards, no baseline projections would fulfill the Kyoto commitment (8% reduction) without additional CO2 emission reduction measures. Given current energy inefficiencies in the industrial sector, it was argued that further emission reductions would occur "autonomously" through economically attractive measures and restructuring rather than specific CO2 reduction measures. This assumption was modeled into the preferred scenario resulting in a baseline projection scenario of high GDP growth, high nuclear energy use, and autonomous energy efficiency improvements of 5%.
This baseline with autonomous measures predicts a modest surplus of carbon emissions (roughly 2 million tons/year) which could be expanded by energy-related CO2 abatement measures such as: fuel switching from coal/oil to natural gas or biomass/wood, increasing the share of combined heat/electricity generation, the use of small hydropower plants, geothermal energy exploitation, and various demand side efficiency measures. According to the National Strategy Study, the total surplus emissions available for trade on a potential world market during the commitment period of 2008-2012 would be 7 tons per year.
SLOVENIA: Slovenia is committed to an 8% decrease of CO2 emissions from its 1986 base year. Unlike many countries in the region, where the energy sector accounts for roughly 90% of CO2 emissions, Slovenia faces particular climate pressure from the transport sector. The Slovenian geographical position, the expansion of east-west trade, and regionally high car ownership have contributed to the growth of this sector (emissions from transport have increased by 90% since 1986) which now accounts for one third of all CO2 emissions.
According to the manager of the National Communication to the UNFCCC at the Ministry of the Environment and Physical Planning, preliminary projections reflecting business as usual scenarios reveal levels of CO2 emission above Kyoto targets during the commitment period. Potential for reducing emissions have been identified and the introduction of domestic measures may allow Slovenia to enter into emissions trading as a seller. The following potential abatement areas have been identified: increasing demand side energy efficiency in residential/commercial sector; increasing share of heat/electricity co-generation; utilize Slovenian wood/biomass potential; utilize Slovenian hydropower potential; and through improved waste management (waste incinerators).
In 1997, Slovenia introduced one of the first CO2 emission taxes in Europe. It is currently in place for liquid fossil fuels and planned to be introduced for coal generating electricity in 2004. A proposed amendment to the CO2 tax provision introduces permits for emissions in several sectors. The permits would act as tax exemptions for determined levels of emissions within the given sector. Firms reducing emissions below the permitted level would be entitled to transfer its permit to other parties. Once established, such a scheme would be a step toward a national emissions trading system which could potentially be adjusted to work with an international emissions trading market.
Klarer, Swisher, and Kolehmainen. "Synthesis Study of the National AIJ/JI/CDM Strategy Studies Program" World Bank, Swiss AIJ Pilot Program, and Ministry of Environment of Finland, 1999.
Working Papers submitted to International Energy Agency Workshop "Opportunities for International Cooperation under the Kyoto Protocol."
C. Christov, S. Todorova, and C. Vassilev. "Climate Change Activities, Mitigation Measures and GHG Emission Projections in Bulgaria"
S. Adler, A. Popescu, D. Popovici and M Dinu. "Policies and Measures for GHG Reduction in Romania."
B. Paradih. "Potential of Slovenia to participate in Flexible Mechanisms under the Kyoto Protocol"